7.19.2007

US Central Bank Chief Foresees Subdued Growth But No Recession



18 July 2007

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The head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke, Wednesday told a congressional committee that the subdued pace of U.S. economic expansion should pick up slightly in the months ahead. VOA's Barry Wood has more on his testimony.

Federal Reserve Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, 18 Jul 2007
While some economists fear that higher oil prices and a weak housing sector could trigger recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke disagrees. He further suggests that the inflationary impact of a three-year-long increase in oil prices is being contained. He told the congressional panel he expects growth will gain momentum during the remainder of this year.

"The central tendency of the growth forecasts, which are conditioned on the assumption of appropriate monetary policy, is for real gross domestic product to expand by 2.25 to 2.5 percent this year and 2.5 to 2.75 percent in 2008," said Bernanke. "The forecasted performance for this year is about one quarter percent below what was expected in [last] February."

Slower growth over the past year, he said, results from weakness in housing.

In his appearance before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke gave no indication that short-term interest rates would be moving either higher or lower. They have been held steady at 5.25 percent by the central bank for over a year.

Concerning housing, Bernanke said prices are likely to remain weak for some time and there will be more foreclosures on properties where borrowers cannot meet their monthly payments.

The international economy, said Bernanke, is strong and likely to remain so. When asked whether China should float and revalue its currency - something many members of Congress have long been pressing China to do - the Federal Reserve chairman answered yes. It is, said Bernanke, in China's own interest to have a stronger currency.

"Without a flexible exchange rate, they're unable to run an independent monetary policy," he said. "And they're having some issues now with a bit of inflation and asset price changes that may reflect excess liquidity in their system."

Because China's trade surplus is so high, the foreign currency it has accumulated boosts the domestic money supply, raising the risk of inflationary pressure on the economy.

Referring to America's large trade deficit, Bernanke said while it poses no immediate problem efforts must be made to narrow the trade imbalance.

Plan to Withdraw US Troops From Iraq Fails Senate Test Vote



18 July 2007

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A Democratic-sponsored plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq by next April has failed a test vote in the U.S. Senate. The vote came after an all-night debate called by Democratic leaders to try to press more Republicans to back the plan. VOA's Deborah Tate reports from Capitol Hill.

Weary from the overnight debate, senators voted 52 to 47 to limit speeches and move the troop withdrawal proposal to an up-or-down vote. Supporters needed 60 votes to move the legislation forward.

The vote was largely along party lines, although several Republicans voted with Democrats.

Senator Harry Reid (l), and Senator Charles Schumer (r) during a press conference at Senate Radio-Television Gallery, 18 July 2007
Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said Republicans were on the wrong side of the issue.

"They chose to stand behind the president in this tragic failure that he has led," he said.

Opponents, including Senator John McCain of Arizona, derided Democrats' decision to keep the Senate in session around the clock, with cots rolled out and pizza delivered late into the night.

"All we achieved are remarkably similar newspaper accounts of our inflated sense of the drama of this display and our own temporary physical fatigue," said McCain.

Those opposed to the troop withdrawal proposal echoed the White House position as they urged fellow lawmakers to wait to assess the situation in Iraq until the top U.S. commander there, General David Petraeus, briefs Congress in September.

"Give General Petraeus and [U.S.] Ambassador [to Iraq Ryan] Crocker 60 more days to prepare their assessment," said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate's top Republican. "At that point, we will have allowed the Baghdad security plan three months to work since it became fully manned last month."

But Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, and key sponsor of the troop withdrawal plan, argued otherwise.

"The longer we delay, the more public support erodes, and options to avoid a more chaotic redeployment disappear," said Reed.

Reed's proposal, offered as an amendment to a defense bill, called for a troop withdrawal to begin within 120 days and completed by the end of April of next year.

As senators prepared to vote, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with key lawmakers to rally support for the administration's Iraq policy.

After the vote, Majority Leader Reid withdrew the defense bill, along with various Iraq-related proposed amendments, from Senate consideration for the time being. But he vowed to keep returning to the issue until Congress votes to change the U.S. course in Iraq.

US Military Captures Top Iraqi Member of al-Qaida in Iraq



18 July 2007

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The U.S. military says it has captured the top Iraqi member of al-Qaida in Iraq. Officials say Khaled al-Mashhadani was an intermediary among top al-Qaida leaders including Osama bin Laden. From Iraq, VOA's Margaret Besheer has more.

Top Iraqi militant Khaled al-Mashhadani's picture is displayed on a giant screen during a US military press conference in Baghdad, 18 July 2007

Khaled al-Mashhadani, also known as Abu Shahid, was captured July 4 in the northern city of Mosul.

U.S. Brigadier General Kevin Bergner told reporters in Baghdad that Mashhadani is believed to be the most senior Iraqi national in the al-Qaida in Iraq network, and is a close associate of Abu Ayub al-Masri, the Egyptian-born head of the group.

General Bergner also said Mashhadani served as an intermediary between top al-Qaida leaders Abu Ayub al-Masri, Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri.

Last year, Mashhadani and Abu Ayub al-Masri started a virtual organization on the Internet called the Islamic State of Iraq, as the new Iraqi pseudonym for al-Qaida in Iraq.

General Kevin Bergner
"In his words, the Islamic State of Iraq is a front organization that masks the foreign influence and leadership within al-Qaida in Iraq in an attempt to put an Iraqi face on the leadership of al-Qaida in Iraq," Bergner said.

The Islamic State in Iraq has identified its leader as Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, but the general says Mashhadani told interrogators that al-Baghdadi does not exist and an actor directed by al-Masri is used to portray him in audiotapes.

The general says Mashhadani's capture has confirmed that foreign al-Qaida leaders, not Iraqis, make the operational decisions for the group inside Iraq.

"The capture of Mashhadani and his statements give us a more complete picture of al-Qaida in Iraq. Although the rank and file are largely Iraqi, the senior leadership of al-Qaida in Iraq, as we have previously stated, is mostly foreign," Bergner said.

General Bergner accused al-Qaida in Iraq of driving the country's sectarian violence.

"They are without question the main threat to the government of Iraq and to the stability of Iraq because of the role they play in accelerating and fueling sectarian violence," Bergner said.

Iraqi and coalition forces have intensified their pursuit of al-Qaida in Iraq recently in operations in several provinces around Baghdad. There has been significant success in the former al-Qaida stronghold of Anbar province, where local tribal leaders have turned against the group.

VOASE0718_The Making of a Nation

18 July 2007
US History: George H.W. Bush's Presidency Saw End of Cold War

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VOICE ONE:

This is Mary Tillotson.

VOICE TWO:

President George Bush and then-defense secretary Dick Cheney during a ceremony in August 1989
And this is Steve Ember with THE MAKING OF A NATION -- a VOA Special English program about the history of the United States. Today, we continue telling about the administration of President George Herbert Walker Bush. He was elected the forty-first president of the United States in nineteen eighty-eight.

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VOICE ONE:

The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union ended under the administration of President George Bush. This very tense period had lasted more than forty years. The invention of weapons that could kill millions of people at one time increased worldwide fears during this period.

The world was changing greatly however, during the late nineteen eighties. The Soviet Union was dying.

VOICE TWO:

On November ninth, nineteen eighty-nine, East Germany opened the Berlin Wall for the first time since it had been built. This wall had divided Communist East Germany from the West since nineteen sixty-one. Citizens and soldiers soon began tearing it down. The fall of the Berlin Wall ended much of the fear and tension between democratic nations and the Soviet Union.

Tensions continued to ease as Communist rule in most of the former Soviet countries ended by the early nineteen nineties.

Fifteen republics had belonged to the Soviet Union. By the end of nineteen ninety-one, most had declared their independence. President Bush recognized all the former Soviet republics. They became a very loosely formed coalition called the Commonwealth of Independent States. Countries that had considered the United States the enemy, now looked to it to lead the way to peace.

VOICE ONE:

As the Soviet Union was dying, President Bush repeatedly negotiated with Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. In the spring of nineteen ninety, for example, their meeting in the United States resulted in an important agreement. It called for each side to destroy most of its chemical weapons. The two men also agreed to improve trade and economic relations.

The American and Soviet presidents met in July, nineteen ninety-one, in Moscow. There, the two leaders signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, called START ONE. This treaty called for both the Soviet Union and the United States to reduce their supply of long-range nuclear bombs and missiles. Each promised to decrease its supply by about one-third over seven years. START ONE became the first agreement between the two powers that ordered cuts in supplies of existing nuclear weapons.

VOICE TWO:

In September nineteen ninety-one, President Bush said the United States would remove most of its short-range nuclear weapons from service. He also said the United States would destroy many of these weapons. The next month, the Soviet nations announced the same actions.

On December twenty-fifth, Mikhail Gorbachev officially resigned as Soviet president. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics ended.

As president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin became the most important leader of the former Soviet Republics. President Bush and President Yeltsin signed another arms treaty in January, nineteen ninety-three. This START TWO agreement provided for reducing long-range nuclear weapons to half the number planned for START ONE. Cuts were to be made over seven years.

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VOICE ONE:

George Bush ordered American forces into battle two times during his administration. These conflicts were not linked to disputes with Communist governments.

In December nineteen eighty-nine, he sent troops to Panama. The goal was to oust the dictator, General Manuel Antonio Noriega. Noriega had refused to honor election results that showed another candidate had been elected president of Panama. The United States also wanted Noriega on illegal drug charges. In addition, President Bush said he sent troops in to protect thirty five-thousand Americans living in the Central American nation.

American soldiers easily defeated Noriega’s forces. He was taken to the United States for trial. The United States then supported the presidency of Guillermo Endara, who had officially won the presidential election in Panama.

VOICE TWO:

In August nineteen ninety, Iraq invaded Kuwait. The United States and other nations were receiving much of their oil from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The United Nations declared a resolution clearly threatening war on Iraq unless it withdrew from Kuwait by January fifteenth, nineteen ninety-one. But Iraq failed to obey.

President Bush succeeded in forming a coalition with thirty-eight other countries against Iraq. The coalition wanted to free Kuwait and protect Saudi Arabia from invasion by Iraq. President Bush sent hundreds of thousands of American troops into the effort.

VOICE ONE:

The Persian Gulf War began in Iraq on January seventeenth, nineteen ninety-one. At first, the coalition bombed Iraqi targets in Iraq and Kuwait. The bombing destroyed or damaged many important centers. On February twenty-sixth, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein ordered his troops to leave Kuwait.

The order came too late. The Iraqis were surrounded. Major ground attacks on Iraq and Kuwait defeated Saddam Hussein’s forces in a little more than four days.

Only about three hundred-seventy coalition troops died in the Persian Gulf War. Some military experts say as many as one hundred-thousand Iraqi fighters may have been killed in the fighting. Others say far fewer Iraqi soldiers died. However, thousands of civilians were thought to have died in Iraq and Kuwait. Kuwait suffered severe damage. But it was free.

VOICE TWO:

After the war Saddam Hussein still controlled his country. Years later, some Americans continued to criticize the Bush Administration for not trying to oust the Iraqi leader. They believed President Bush should have urged that coalition forces try to capture the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

After the war ended, Kurdish people in northern Iraq fought to oust the Iraqi leader. So did Shi-ite Muslims in southern Iraq. These groups suffered crushing defeat.

VOICE ONE:

The defeated Kurds fled to Iran, Turkey, and the northern Iraqi mountains. Thousands of Kurds died or suffered from war injuries, disease, and starvation. In April, President Bush ordered American troops to work with other coalition nations to give humanitarian aid to the refugees. The troops established refugee camps for the Kurds.

As time passed, Iraqi soldiers and aircraft continued to attack Kurds in the north and Shi-ite Muslims in the south. Coalition forces led by the United States established safety areas in northern and southern Iraq. Years later, these “no fly” areas still restricted Iraqi military air activity.

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VOICE TWO:

President Bush also ordered American military troops to join other troops in Somalia. By late nineteen ninety-two, lack of rain and continuing civil war had caused widespread suffering there. Opposing armed ethnic groups were keeping Somalis from receiving food and other aid supplies. American soldiers helped in the effort to get aid to the starving people.

VOICE ONE:

The North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, was signed in late nineteen ninety-two. It called for the United States and Mexico to remove taxes and other trade barriers. Mexico and Canada agreed to take similar action. NAFTA became effective in nineteen ninety-four, after George Bush had left office.

Some people feared that NAFTA would hurt millions of workers. Others praised President Bush for supporting the agreement.

VOICE TWO:

By the third year of his four-year term, President Bush’s international activities had made him an extremely popular president. It seemed he would be easily re-elected in nineteen ninety two.

Historians often say, however, that political situations can change quickly. That is what happened to America’s forty-first president. Economic problems and other issues inside the United States began to seriously damage the great popularity of George Herbert Walker Bush.

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VOICE ONE:

This program of The Making of A Nation was written by Jerilyn Watson and produced by George Grow. This is Mary Tillotson.

VOICE TWO:

And this is Steve Ember. Join us again next week for another VOA Special English program about the history of the United States.

VOASE0718_Education Report

18 July 2007
Evidence for School Uniform Policies in US Seen as Weak

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This is the VOA Special English Education Report.

In nineteen ninety-nine, twelve percent of public elementary schools in the United States required students to wear uniforms. Just three years later, estimates were almost double that.

Students leave a Cleveland, Ohio, high school in January 2006. A study of six big-city Ohio public schools showed students who were required to wear uniforms had improved graduation, behavior and attendance rates. Academic performance was unchanged.
Some middle and high schools have also joined the movement. Yet studies find mixed results from requiring uniforms. And some schools have turned away from such policies.

Supporters believe dressing the same creates a better learning environment and safer schools. The school district in Long Beach, California, was the first in the country to require uniforms in all elementary and middle schools.

That was in nineteen ninety-four. The example helped build national interest in uniforms as a way to deal with school violence and improve learning.

Findings in Long Beach suggested that the policy resulted in fewer behavior problems and better attendance. But researcher Viktoria Stamison has looked at those findings. She says they were based only on opinions about the effects of uniforms.

She says other steps taken at the same time to improve schools in Long Beach and statewide could have influenced the findings. The district increased punishments for misbehavior. And California passed a law to reduce class sizes.

Her report is among several in a book published last year called "Uniforms in Public Schools: A Decade of Research and Debate."

In Florida, for example, researcher Sharon Pate found that uniforms seemed to improve behavior and reduce violence. In Texas, Eloise Hughes found fewer discipline problems among students required to wear uniforms, but no effect on attendance.

Sociologist David Brunsma has studied school uniform policies since nineteen ninety-eight. He collected the reports in the book. In his own study, he found that reading and mathematics performance dropped after a school in rural Pennsylvania required uniforms.

Political and community pressures may persuade schools to go to uniforms to improve learning. But David Brunsma and others believe there is not enough evidence of a direct relationship. In fact, he says requiring uniforms may even increase discipline problems.

But researchers also say studies of uniform policies are often scientifically limited. They say more work is needed to get better information.

And that's the VOA Special English Education Report, written by Nancy Steinbach. For more on this debate, go to voaspecialenglish.com. I'm Steve Ember.